Champions League Knockout Race: Who Can Join Arsenal and Bayern in the Last 16?
With one round left in the Champions League league phase, Arsenal and Bayern are through. Here’s what every other club needs to qualify for the knockout stage.
Who Can Join Arsenal and Bayern in the Champions League Knockouts?
The Champions League league phase is entering its decisive moment, and with just one round of fixtures remaining, the path to the knockout stage is finally becoming clearer—though far from simple.
Two clubs have already booked their place in the last 16: Arsenal and Bayern Munich. Everyone else is still scrambling for position in what has become one of the most competitive finishes in recent memory.
While Arsenal have been flawless, winning all seven matches so far, Bayern have also done enough to guarantee progress. For the rest of Europe’s elite, however, the final matchday on 28 January (20:00 GMT) will determine who advances directly, who must navigate the play-offs, and who exits the competition entirely.
Who Is Already Through?
Arsenal sit comfortably at the summit after seven straight wins. A single point at home against Kairat Almaty will secure top spot ahead of Bayern Munich. In practical terms, finishing first or second makes little difference in the draw, as both teams will be seeded and face winners of designated play-off ties.
Bayern Munich need only a draw away at PSV Eindhoven to lock in a top-two finish alongside Arsenal. The reward is significant: the top two teams are guaranteed home advantage in the second leg of every knockout round until the final.
For everyone else, the picture is far more complicated.
The Battle for the Top Eight
Behind Arsenal and Bayern, chaos reigns. Only six of the remaining top-eight places are still up for grabs, yet 16 teams remain mathematically in contention.
Let’s start with the clearer scenarios:
- Real Madrid (15 points)
- Liverpool (15 points)
- Tottenham Hotspur (14 points)
A win on matchday eight guarantees any of these three a direct place in the last 16.
Tottenham travel to face already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt. Liverpool host Qarabag at Anfield, while Real Madrid face a tricky away trip to Benfica, coached by José Mourinho and still fighting for their own survival.
Liverpool captain Virgil van Dijk summed up the stakes perfectly:
“It’s very important because you miss the play-offs and it helps with the intense programme that we’re having. It’s all down to us again next week, at home. Let’s make sure we’re in the top eight.”
Behind Spurs lies a tightly packed group of eight teams—from Paris Saint-Germain in sixth down to Atalanta in 13th, all sitting on 13 points.
This group includes:
- Paris Saint-Germain
- Newcastle United
- Chelsea
- Manchester City
- Napoli
- Barcelona
- Atletico Madrid
- Atalanta
Every one of these sides likely needs a victory, and even then, goal difference may decide their fate.
Newcastle face the daunting task of travelling to PSG. Chelsea head to Naples to face Napoli, while Manchester City host Galatasaray. These are not straightforward fixtures, and the margin for error is slim.
Remarkably, despite 16 teams competing for just six top-eight spots, only two of the 18 final fixtures directly pit contenders against each other:
- PSG vs Newcastle
- Borussia Dortmund vs Inter Milan
This unusual scheduling means many clubs’ futures will depend on results elsewhere, creating a dramatic, multi-screen finale.
Play-Off Hopes Still Alive
The race doesn’t end with the top eight. The battle for the play-off places—positions 9 through 24—is just as fierce.
Incredibly, every team down to Ajax in 32nd still has a mathematical chance of reaching the play-offs. Only four clubs have been officially eliminated:
- Eintracht Frankfurt
- Slavia Prague
- Villarreal
- Kairat Almaty
Just three points separate Marseille in 19th from Ajax in 32nd. Even Borussia Dortmund, currently 16th and two points ahead of Marseille, have not yet mathematically secured a play-off berth.
Once again, the fixture list adds intrigue. Only two games directly match play-off contenders against each other:
- Ajax vs Olympiacos
- Club Brugge vs Marseille
Every other side will be watching results elsewhere, calculators in hand.
Final Matchday Fixtures (All Kick Off at 20:00 GMT, 28 January)
- Ajax v Olympiacos
- Arsenal v Kairat
- Athletic Club v Sporting
- Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
- Barcelona v Copenhagen
- Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal
- Benfica v Real Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
- Club Brugge v Marseille
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham
- Liverpool v Qarabag
- Manchester City v Galatasaray
- Monaco v Juventus
- Napoli v Chelsea
- PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich
- Pafos v Slavia Prague
- Paris St-Germain v Newcastle
- Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
With so many clubs still alive, the final night promises drama across Europe.
What to Expect
For Arsenal and Bayern, the pressure is off. For everyone else, it is survival football.
- A win likely sends Real Madrid, Liverpool, and Spurs straight through.
- A single mistake could push PSG, City, Chelsea, or Newcastle into the play-offs—or out altogether.
- Clubs hovering near the bottom will be hoping for miracles, watching multiple scorelines in real time.
This is the Champions League at its most unforgiving. One night. Eighteen matches. Dozens of scenarios.
By the final whistle, Europe will know who joins Arsenal and Bayern in the last 16—and who must fight on, or bow out, from the continent’s greatest competition.
